CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-12-17T05:00:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by Yaireska Collado)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from the excerpted Forecast Discussion below and http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction).
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the excerpted Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below).

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Dec 18 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2242 (S18W01,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two M-class events, including an M1 flare
(R1-Minor) at 17/0110 UTC and an M8/2b flare (R2-Moderate) at 17/0451
UTC, which was the largest event of the period. The M8 flare had
associated Type II (est speed 910 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as
well as a 320 sfu Tenflare. The majority of the ejecta from the
associated coronal mass ejection (CME) had a southerly trajectory.
However, there is a weak Earthward component and model output suggests
arrival at Earth late on 19 Dec.

.Forecast...
Solar activity for the next three days (18-20 Dec) is likely to be
moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) as Regions 2241 and 2242 continue to
grow in areal coverage as well as maintain complex magnetic structures.
There is also a slight chance for an isolated X-class event (R3-Strong)
during the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind parameters, measured at ACE, were indicative normal
ambient background levels. Solar wind speeds were steady near 400 km/s.
The total field remained steady between 4 nT and 6 nT while the Bz
component fluctuated between plus/minus 6 nT. Phi angle was in a primarily
positive (away) orientation for most of the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to remain at normal ambient
background levels for the majority of days one and two (18-19 Dec).
Disturbed conditions are anticipated beginning late on 19 Dec due to the
arrival of the CME associated with the M8 flare observed earlier today.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled (below
G1-Minor) for the majority of days one and two (18-19 Dec). Unsettled to
active conditions are expected to begin late on 19 Dec, with a chance
for isolated minor storm periods (G1-Minor) due to the arrival of the
CME associated with the M8 flare observed earlier today.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Dec 18 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 18-Dec 20 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 18-Dec 20 2014

            Dec 18     Dec 19     Dec 20
00-03UT        3          2          4     
03-06UT        2          2          4     
06-09UT        2          2          3     
09-12UT        2          2          3     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        2          2          2     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          4          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

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